The US president raised the possibility that Ukraine could reclaim its pre-war territory from Russia.
President Donald Trump voiced a newfound optimism that Ukraine can retake all of its pre-2014 territory from Russia, potentially bolstering Kyiv’s fighting spirit after a costly three-and-a-half years of conflict.
In a speech before the U.N. General Assembly on Sept. 23, Trump signaled willingness to raise pressure on Russia, if his European allies would significantly curb their continuing reliance on Russian energy exports. Later that same day, Trump affirmed that, with enough European support, Ukrainian forces could feasibly retake all the territory they’ve lost to Russia over the years.
Trump had previously raised the possibility of a negotiated settlement that would either freeze the conflict along the current battle lines, or entail some land swaps between Russia and Ukraine.
The U.S. president’s expression of newfound optimism for Ukraine’s battlefield advantage follows months of outreach to Russian President Vladimir Putin, but with little traction toward a cease-fire.
“After getting to know and fully understand the Ukraine/Russia Military and Economic situation and, after seeing the Economic trouble it is causing Russia, I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form,” Trump wrote in a Sept. 23 post on Truth Social.
While Ukraine winning back all of its territory is a departure from previous Trump administration assessments of this specific conflict, he has previously pushed for Europe to take on greater responsibility for the security of the region.
Moreover, Trump’s comments about the need for European support for Ukraine are consistent with steps he took over the summer to renew the flows of western weapons to Ukraine.
In July, he announced a new security assistance framework with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, whereby alliance members would purchase military equipment from the United States to provide to Ukraine.
Despite the outside support, Ukrainian efforts to retake territory have seen mixed results thus far.
Late in the summer of 2022, Ukrainian forces wound back some of Russia’s territorial gains. Another Ukrainian counteroffensive, in the summer of 2023, petered out without making a significant dent in Russia’s lines.
Situation on the Battlefield
Russian forces currently control about a fifth of Ukraine’s pre-war territory, including the Crimean Peninsula they seized in 2014, and a swathe of eastern Ukraine.
According to the latest assessment shared by the Council on Foreign Relations, the international community has sent approximately $407 billion in weapons and financial support to Ukraine since the current phase of the war began in February of 2022. This includes about $118 billion in direct U.S. support.
“Neither side is positioned for a sudden, sweeping breakthrough, but the balance shifts depending on whether Ukraine can sustain deep-strike campaigns against depots and transport hubs,” national security analyst and founder of Scarab Rising, Irina Tsukerman, told The Epoch Times.
In recent weeks, Ukrainian forces have reported retaking some villages near the city of Dobropillia, in the Donetsk oblast.
Tsukerman said recent Ukrainian territorial wins may have prompted Trump’s assuring comments about the direction of the war.
She said continued battlefield successes for Ukrainian forces appear reliant on their ability to coordinate long-range strike weapons, measures to counter Russian signal jamming, and the ability to send fresh maneuvering forces to exploit new gaps in Russian lines.
Daniel L. Davis, a retired U.S. Army officer and senior fellow at Defense Priorities, was far more pessimistic about Ukraine’s chances of success on the ground. He told The Epoch Times “there is no chance” Ukraine can actually retake its pre-war territory.
“Not an insignificant [chance]. Not a minor one. There is no chance,” Davis emphasized.
Since the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive, “it has been non-stop advances by the Russian side.”
He said Ukrainian forces currently lack the firepower to mount a serious offensive against the Russian side. Even if Ukrainian forces did have the firepower, Davis said they still lack the trained manpower necessary to wield such firepower effectively.
Positioning Europe
In a speech before the U.N. General Assembly, the day after Trump’s comments about Ukraine reclaiming its pre-war territory, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy continued to call on the international community to support his country.
“Of course, we are doing everything to make sure Europe truly helps. And of course, we count on the United States,” Zelenskyy said. “I appreciate the support we are receiving.”
Throughout the conflict, Zelenskyy has sought Ukrainian entry into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and its inherent security guarantees. Barring that, Zelenskyy has raised the prospect of NATO members, particularly from Europe, providing continued military support and some form of security assurance for his country.
Alp Sevimlisoy, a geopolitical strategist and fellow at the Atlantic Council, raised the possibility that NATO member nations could arrange their military forces in a way “that gives Ukraine enough maneuverability” to retake its territory.
“We must place instruments of warfare that enable direct retaliation towards Russia, and have deterrence structures in place that are capable of severely dismantling the security structure itself of the Kremlin,” Sevimlisoy told The Epoch Times.
Davis expressed apprehension about the idea of NATO force build-ups near Russia as a means of either distracting or threatening Moscow in the middle of its ongoing fight with Ukraine. He warned that even positioning NATO forces without the intent to involve them directly in the fighting in Ukraine, raises the risks from a misinterpretation or miscalculation that leads to direct conflict with Russia.
Without much optimism for a battlefield win, Davis offered that Trump may have suggested Ukrainian success is contingent on European support as a way to excuse himself from solving the problem.
“Instead of saying, ‘I’m walking away,’ which would open him up to all kinds of criticism no matter how he handled it, he’s just saying, ‘Well, this is easier,’” Davis said.
Options for Diplomacy
While Trump last week expressed optimism about Ukraine’s ability to settle the conflict with Russia through military force, Vice President J.D. Vance said the president’s comments were “not a shift in position.”
Speaking to a crowd in North Carolina on Sept. 24, Vance said the Trump administration has engaged in good faith with both Russia and Ukraine but doesn’t feel like Moscow is “putting enough on the table to end the war.”
Vance further said that the conflict has been bad for both Russia and Ukraine, as well as the United States, and all sides would be best served through diplomacy.
“But look, if the Russians refuse to negotiate in good faith, I think it’s going to be very, very bad for their country,” Vance said.
Responding to Trump and Vance’s recent comments, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow assumes that the Trump administration is still primarily interested in resolving the conflict through negotiations.
“For now, we assume that Washington retains the political will, and President Trump retains the political will, to continue efforts toward a peaceful settlement in Ukraine,” Peskov said. “We support these efforts, and Russia remains open to entering into peace talks.”
